Cross Euro ruble is challenging to call accessible because both assets have a complex conjuncture, which often correlates with each other, which eventually leads to mutual pressure of currencies on each other.
Nevertheless, the pair is quite interesting if you understand it and understand what factors are the drivers for the movement of the course.
As for the Euro, the currency primarily depends on the interest rate, which will announce the European Central Bank. He meets eight times a year and announces the decision at a press conference.
This is the most critical event for traders, which will determine the movement of all crosses for the next 2-3 weeks. To at least, roughly understand what is being prepared for, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of economic indicators.
If we consider the eurozone globally, 60% of the euro depends on the economic potential of Germany, another 30% and 10% add France and Italy, respectively.
All other countries make too little contribution to be taken into account in analytics. However, crises also need to be monitored. And first of all, it concerns the post-Soviet countries, whose economy is weak and prone to harmful factors.
Most Eastern European countries have neither raw materials nor industrial status. This means that their economy is built on the export of agricultural products, tourism, or light industry.
Since the primary sales market is the more developed EU neighbors, any drop in demand for these products breaks holes in the budget of these countries. As a result, inflation is rising, and the ECB is forced to make tranches to cover costs and lower the interest rate.
During a relatively calm economic situation, when the trade is growing, Germany and other developed countries can focus on solving their problems and raise GDP, which will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the interest rate.
The Russian ruble (RUB) is a pure commodity currency, which depends on oil and gas prices. The country produces coal, gold, diamonds, platinum. On its territory, there are deposits of heavy metals used in nuclear energy. But all this does not exceed 15-20% of GDP.
As for the heavy industry, the leading trading partner of the Russian Federation is China. As the PRC economy grows, the country moves away from the import model and creates its extensive industrial facilities. Therefore, the main driver of the ruble is energy.
OPEC meetings, a report on US oil production and deposits, decisions of Mexico, Venezuela, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE on raw materials export issues strongly affect the ruble exchange rate.
The commodity market is volatile, so the ruble is one of the most volatile currencies in the world. Also, there are many internal factors that determine the strength of the RUB.
First of all, we are talking about the territory of the country. Russia is the largest state in the world. Therefore, the elimination of natural disasters is an essential part of the budget.
Since the money goes to solve internal problems, and not to develop economic infrastructure, any cataclysm leads to a drawdown of the ruble.
In 2019, the country faced another unpleasant surprise regarding the launch of a new gas pipeline. Instead of reducing transportation costs, there was a threat of paying a substantial penalty to partner countries.
This circumstance sharply crippled the ruble and led to its rapid decline, which lasted about a week. Then the situation stabilized, but the currency did not return to the previous values.
All this allows us to say that the EUR/RUB cross is quite unpredictable, but at the same time will enable you to earn good money for those who prefer scalping.
The last important point is relations between the Russian Federation and the USA. They were not unaffected neither during the time of Tsarist Russia, nor during the USSR, nor, especially, at the present stage.
The loss of superpower status for some time gave America an advantage, but since the beginning of the 2000s, Russia has quickly regained its status and is gaining power in all areas.
Naturally, the Western world does not like this, and he does his best to limit the influence of the Russian Federation. This is implemented through the introduction of trade restrictions. And such a policy does harm GDP.
Opening long positions in a pair are extremely dangerous. Even if you are confident that the fundamental and technical analysis is done correctly, and the situation remains predictable to the end, any natural disaster or another wave of trade aggression by the United States or Europe can nullify all forecasts.
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